Regression Modelling Estimation of Marine Diesel Generator Fuel Consumption and Emissions

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the fuel consumption of marine diesel generators onboard. Objective technical specifications and operational data on the ship's power generating plants and port calls were collected from an oceangoing oil/chemical tanker and used to develop the mathematical model of the plant in the Python and MATLAB environment. The model consists of alternators, prime movers and load distributions of the ship’s power generating plant and provides information on fuel consumption in metric tons calculated based on hours of operation and specific fuel consumption data. Regression models have helped predict future fuel consumption for the plant and the optimal model for the dataset was identified by comparing four different algorithms. As the results have shown the Ordinary Least Squares Regression to be optimum, it was used to make one, five, and ten-year predictions. The predictions for one-year, five-year, and ten-year periods are 4,322,436, 10,684,860, and 18,615,472 t respectively. The selected model predicts fuel consumption with R² of 0.999, MAE of 3.932, and RMSE of 2.935. Fuel consumption predictions facilitated plant emission calculation.