Prediction of Emergency Preparedness Level On-Board Ships Using Discrete Event Simulation: the Case of Firefighting Drill


  • Burcu Ozturk Tac Istanbul Technical University, Graduate School of Science, Engineering and Technology, Istanbul, Türkiye
  • Metin Celik Istanbul Technical University, Department of Basic Science, Istanbul, Türkiye



Ship emergency preparedness, Firefighting drill, Discrete event simulation, Fuzzy DEMATEL


This paper proposes a hybrid approach, including Fuzzy Dematel (FD) integrated with Discrete Event Simulation (DES), to predict emergency preparedness levels on-board ships. The FD used critical factors that affect emergency preparedness to conduct a DES based on real firefighting drill records collected from 45 merchant ships. The simulation results showed the average duration of on-board drills in ideal conditions (27.47 min.), in the worst-case scenario (51.49 min.), for Ship A (29.99 min.), and Ship B (28.12 min.). Based on the findings, recovery actions linked to the factors have been recommended to promote on-board implementation. The proposed model is of great importance to shore-based managers, allowing them to monitor the emergency preparedness level of the fleet continuously, even during pandemics. Further studies are planned to develop a remote monitoring system that would digitalize the existing response procedures in emergency situations.

Author Biography

Metin Celik, Istanbul Technical University, Department of Basic Science, Istanbul, Türkiye

Metin Celik, is a Professor of Maritime Faculty at ITU. He received his BSc (2003) in Marine Engineering at ITU. He was appointed as a Research Assistant in the Maritime Faculty of ITU in 2004. He received his MSc (2006) and Ph.D. (2009) in Maritime Transportation Engineering from Graduate School of ITU. He conducted risk-based decision-making studies as an international visiting scholar of LJMU, UK, and attended short-term studies in Japan and Finland. He has published 2 book chapters, 50+ SCI/SSCI indexed journal papers (h-index 22; 1600+ citations in Wos/WoK; 1800+ citations in Scopus) and 50+ international conference papers in maritime era. He was involved in 11 maritime research/technology projects in Coordinator (2), Researcher (5), Advisor (4) positions. He has supervised/co-supervised 5 PhD dissertations and 9 MSc theses on system reliability, advanced maintenance, statistical learning, emergency preparedness, training development, and human element. In 2015-2020, he coordinated 700 short-term continuing education classes as the Director of Maritime Continuous Education & Certification Division. He held administrative duties such as Vice Dean, Quality Coordinator, Management Board Member of Maritime Faculty, Vice Head of Marine Engineering Dept., Head of Maritime Transportation Eng. Graduate Program and Turkish MET Quality Auditor. Professor Celik has been featured among the World's Top 2% Scientists List, according to a Stanford University ranking study, published in 2020-2021. His main research topics include marine engineering, maritime technologies, safety analysis, human/system reliability, maritime training, competency monitoring, maintenance modelling, and operations analytics. He is the co-founder of Blueanalytica Maritime R&D and Information Technologies Inc since July 01, 2021. 




How to Cite

Tac, B. O. and Celik, M. (2022) “Prediction of Emergency Preparedness Level On-Board Ships Using Discrete Event Simulation: the Case of Firefighting Drill”, Transactions on Maritime Science. Split, Croatia, 11(2). doi: 10.7225/toms.v11.n02.008.
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